August 31, 2022

France & Euro Zone’s doom age

France & Euro Zone economic downturn

France will face its worst financial and economic downturn of its history in the coming 5 years, worst than 1929, 1970 and 1979. 6% inflation next year in France and 18% in the UK. France #economy has entered into recurrent and steady state stagflation cycles.

Unemployment rises, public deficit is sky rocketing and social inequalities are soaring. 10 millions french are living under the poverty threshold. France is no longer a global economic power but sadly an emergent country. France is at the edge of the doom and back to its 1st industrial revolution era. GDP growth is 0,5% in 2022 in France. Same diagnosis of economic recession for the UK that would face 18% inflation in 2023, and inflation projections are also on the rise in all the Euro Zone.

Many european countries may face bankrupcy and would chose to exit the EU and adopt their former currencies to regain their financial sovereignty. Bitcoin bubble has already exploded. It is just a matter of months before a stock exchange krach. Technological and innovation growth will not be sufficient to balance this krach as the superprofits are not taxable yet and would not spread the growth to the middle class. Aging of population, low birth rate, energy lack of sovereignty, governance weaknesses at the European Council, Russian annexions in the Eastern european countries, oil & gas and raw materials crisis will inevitably plundge Europe in 6 years of crisis that will reshuffle its world influence to zero. The Green transformation of european industry, the so called great reset requires raw materials that are scarce and on high demand by the BRICS.

World economy has entered into recession because the Green industrial and digital revolution has been a disaster and casting errors while the old economy based on oil and gas is gripped by the new hegemony and paradigm of global multipolar powers. In this global crisis environment, the agility and ability to adapt to uncertainty, change and instability will be crucial for the countries to survive and to prevent hunger riots. Social justice and fighting against social inequalities will make the impact. Revolutions may strike despotic regimes in KSA, Tunisia and France.

Keep calm and take care of your beloved ones. Make reserves of candels and food before the rationing. The new French Prime minister Elisabeth BORNE will not help to fill in the fridge or turn on the light. French need a courageous visionary strong man leader to thrive and survive in these uncertain times as women should shine in the shadow of their men. Would the French still use electricity or candels would take over. In the second option birth rate may sky rocket and that would give economic growth a chance. Keep warm under the blanket winter is close.

Hilal EL AKRAMINE

East London,  01/09/2022

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